Singapore Government Press Release
Media Division, Ministry of Information and The Arts,
MITA Building, 140 Hill Street, 2^nd Storey, Singapore 179369
Tel: 837-9666

Today, the Department of Statistics is releasing its ninth Advance Data Release, which summarizes the progress that Singapore has made in the past decade. Together with the first paper on Singapore�s demographic profile released in Aug 2000, DOS has released a total of 10 papers based on Census 2000 data. The media have given extensive coverage on these releases.

This latest release on �A Decade of Progress� is a good report card on how we have developed as a people and as a country. If we look at the indicators over the past two decades from 1980 to 2000, we can see enormous progress in how we live and work, in our education and in our quality of life. The data show what we knew all along: that Singapore has changed for the better year after year, decade after decade, since Independence. The Census generated many quantitative indicators on our progress. DOS has prepared a table summarizing these changes which will be circulated to you.

The progress of a country does not come about as a matter of course. Data from the World Bank show that there are countries in the developing world with declining standards of living and life expectancies. We need good government, hard work and favorable conditions to make progress. Good government is obviously crucial. Without good government, we would not have gotten here and, without good government, we will not be able to overcome severe challenges in the future. Good government enabled us to exploit favorable historical conditions. Let me now touch on three trends which favoured us in the past and how changes in these trends will affect us in the future.

First, favorable demographics were a great help. The bulk of the baby boomers who were born after the war came of age when Singapore started taking off. The baby boomers provided the necessary entry-level manpower for our industries in the 70s and 80s, and now they form the bulk of our managerial class.

Because of the fall in birth rate in the early 70s and 80s, we have benefited tremendously from a declining dependency ratio. In 1970, the median age of Singapore was only 20 years, and the young dependency ratio was 68, which meant that for every hundred working-age persons there were 68 young dependents. Since then, the ratio has fallen by half to 30 in 2000.

Lower dependency ratio means that as the economy expands, we would have much more resources to spend on fewer dependents. There are fewer children to feed and educate. This enables us to look after our young better.

However, these favorable demographic conditions would start to turn against us in 10 years� time. The baby boomers are fast moving into the pre-retirement ages. In 2000, there were about 27,000 sixty-year olds. In another 10 years, this would almost double to 48,000. Their replacement in the labour market will have to come from younger age groups that are much smaller in size. The declining young dependency ratio is an early warning indicator for us. Given the present birth trends, the young dependency ratio will drop further to about 26. This means that the future supply of workers from our own sources will be limited.

At the same time, the old dependency ratio will increase rapidly as the baby boomers move into the elderly age groups. The old dependency ratio is expected to rise to over 30 by 2030 from a low 10 in 2000. The median age of the population has gone up from 29 years in 1990 to 34 years in 2000, and will reach 41 in 2030. Not only will we have an older workforce, we will also have to take care of a much larger elderly population.

The second trend of better education and healthcare reinforced the positive demographic changes in our population. The late baby boomers and post-baby boomers have benefited greatly from expanded and improved education and healthcare systems. They are much better taken care of than the older generations. Because we are starting from a lower base, we are able to make much faster progress. But, human capital investment will work its way through the age structure, and the incremental returns will become less and less, as we become a First World country. Take the proportion of young adults with upper secondary or higher education as an example. In 1990, the proportion was 18%. In 2000, the proportion jumped to 49%, an increase of 31 percentage points. But among the future adults, the increase will be much smaller.

In the future, the progress of our country will have to be measured by new yardsticks, as the conventional indicators would have leveled off. The easy gains have been made. Scaling the heights will be much more difficult. Literacy rate for example is now 93%. Among the young it is already at 100%. Future gains will be far less dramatic.

How then should we measure the progress of our people? The number of patents filed by Singaporeans? The number of new companies created? The numbers of international awards won? Our positions in international rankings? This is something we need to think about and a challenge for the Department of Statistics.

The third trend which favoured us was geopolitics. During the Cold War, Singapore benefited from the support of the Western powers and Japan. After 1965, we were able to make Singapore attractive to MNCs. In the 70s and 80s, many of our people made their living working in consumer electronic factories. When the Plaza Accord of 1985 revalued the Japanese Yen, it brought about a boom in non-Communist Southeast Asia as investments poured into the region. This continued until the Asian financial crisis in 1997.

We are entering a new phase in global politics. The end of the Cold War has reduced the strategic importance of Southeast Asia to the big players. For example, it is difficult to get the Western powers to focus on Indonesia and help it through this difficult period. China, on the other hand, has gained prominence politically and economically. It will be a serious competitor for foreign investment in the coming years.

Will the region provide us with a supporting environment to progress further? There will be opportunities, but the going will be much harder.

Casting our eyes ten years ahead, what will the 2010 Census tell us? We will probably do better than the 2000 snapshot because of sheer momentum. The systems we have put in will continue to produce results. Our economic fundamentals are good, our education system will continue to improve, our social infrastructure will become more sophisticated and, in many aspects, we will probably have the economic, educational and cultural profile of a First World country.

But some trends will change adversely, and the future will be more complicated. Let me highlight three responses to some of the future challenges that we will face.

1. First, the importance of foreign talent. The government encourages the in-migration of talent, both to alleviate adverse demographic trends and in response to the fact that further gains in educational attainments will become more difficult as we achieve First World standards. Quantitatively, we need numbers to grow our economy. Qualitatively, as innate abilities become more important, we must compete for our share of global talent.
2. Second, with globalization, we must diversify our links and think in terms of a wider region. The immediate region has supported our growth in the past few decades. ASEAN�s importance will remain, as this is our immediate neighborhood. But the stimulus for future growth will have to come from a wider region and beyond. The world has become smaller. Overseas opportunities are no longer as distant as they were perceived to be in the past. For many years to come, like Switzerland and the Netherlands, we will become a significant capital exporter to a wider region which will include China, India and Australia. The FTAs we are negotiating will create more opportunities for our economy and better secure our links to North America, Japan, Europe and Australasia.
3. Third, we must strengthen the Singapore Spirit. Globalization can weaken our sense of being Singaporean as more migrants come in, and as Singaporeans travel the world to work, live, study and play. We must therefore strengthen our bonds as Singaporeans so that, despite the changes, Singaporeans remain self-consciously Singaporean with a sense of our own destiny. Instead of fragmenting and scattering, we must try to build up an international network that unite around a set of ideas and ideals, and tie us back emotionally to geographical Singapore. These ideas and ideals must of course be much larger than our geographical reality so that those who join our ranks, far from feeling confined, are liberated and better able to fulfil their potential regardless of race or religion. At home, the institutions that bind us together must evolve to meet these future challenges: the family, community organizations and civil society all have a role to play in strengthening the Singapore spirit. Overseas voting becomes a necessity. So too the safeguarding of our  collective financial reserves. If we do all these things well, and provided we continue to have good government, the 2010 Census will show us to be still healthy and growing. Otherwise, the snapshot then will be worrying.

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